Forex Trading
Technical Analysis
The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trends
and price pattens and attempt to exploit them using various technical
indicators. Technical analysis is a method of forecasting the future
direction of prices through the study and analysis of past data.
Technical analysis ignores all the nature of the market, currency, or
commodity being traded and solely relies on the charts.
Technical Indicators
Bar Charts - A bar is a
graphical representation of the movement of a currency pair over time
(e.g minutes, hours, days, weeks). The Left tick represents the Open
price, the right tick represents the close price, and the center bar
represents the trading range. From the picture below it would appear
that the currency opened then went up to the high and met some
resistance got sold of down to the low where it met some support and
closed below the open price.
Candlestick Charts - Candlestick charts were created in the
1700's and were used to predict the prices of rice. They operate the
same way as the Bar Charts but a box is drawn around the open and close
prices. If the box is white or green it means that the close price was
higher than the open price, if the box is black or red then the open
price was higher than the close price.
The thin likes at the top and bottom of the charts are called the wicks
and depending on how long they are you can determine whether it is a
good time to enter a trade. You can combine the candlestick charts with
other technical analysis to generate entry and exit signals for your
trading.
Fibonacci Retracements -
After a significant price movement up or down prices often retrace and
support/resistance levels often occur at or near the Fibonacci
retracement levels. These levels generally occur at 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%
or 61.8% of the previous move and if these levels are broken this could
mean an entry signal.
MACD - Moving Average Convergence/Divergence was created in the
1960's and is considered a lagging indicator. since the emergence of
computerized analysis this indicator has become highly unreliable and
most strategies do not recommend using it anymore.
Moving Averages- the moving average is used to smooth out the
price data usually just relying on the close prices over a time period.
Signals can be generated by the currency price crossing over the moving
average line.
- If a currency crosses above the moving average it can be taken as
a buy signal.
- If a currency crosses below the moving average it can be taken as
a sell signal.
There are a number of moving averages, these are the simple moving
average, exponential moving average (EMA), and the weighted moving
average (WMA). The weighted moving average is good because the most
recent data has a higher weighting. But find what best works for you.
RSI - Relative Strength Index
is a number between 0 and 100 with 50 being neutral. Buy and Sell
signals can be generated by looking at positive and negative
divergences between the RSI and the underlying currency pair. Generally
a reading of above 50 means the average gain is higher than the average
loss, and a reading below 50 is the average loss is greater than the
average gain.
When the RSI crosses above the line it represents an over bought
position and the currency pair will likely fall in value. if it crosses
below the line it mean the currency pair is likely in an over sold
position and it likely to rise in value. If the currency pair is
trading within the range it is relatively neutral.